Gauteng generated just over a third of south africa s gross domestic product gdp in 2017, making it the nations biggest provincial economy click on the chart to enlarge. An overview has been generated using key economic indicators paired with detailed statista industry forecasts. Prospects in the retail and consumer goods sector in ten sub. South african economic outlook 201415 opinion, news south african economic outlook 201415. South africa suffers among the highest levels of inequality in the world when measured by the commonly used gini index. Subsaharan africa is published twice a year, in the. France expects g20 to offer african nations moratorium on debt. Highlightsdhighlights 2 economic overview political developments in the first half of 2019 will be a key determinant of the south african economy s performance over the remainder of the year. This is a very pertinent topic, which could not be more relevant at this stage. An investment and growthsupportive outcome is likely to result in a gradual economic recovery. We support the implementation of the african unions strategic vision at continental, regional, national and local levels by coproducing cuttingedge data and analysis with our african member states and partners, and facilitating an open dialogue on policies to accelerate that transformation. The expected recovery, however, is at a slower pace than previously envisaged for about twothirds of the countries in the region, partly due to a challenging external environment. The african economic outlook 2014 analyses the continents growing role in the world economy and predicts twoyear macroeconomic prospects.
The june 2019 quarterly employment survey, released by statistics south africa, showed that an estimated 10 172 000 people were employed in the formal nonagricultural sector of the south african economy, which is down by 2 000 from the 10 174 000 recorded in the previous quarter. In its 20152016 global competitiveness report, the world economic forum ranked south africa 49th in its global competitiveness index out of 140 economies, up from 56th in the previous reporting period. In nigeria, the regions largest economy and oil exporter, growth slowed to 3. At the heart of this slow growth are the major headwinds of high inflation, increasing government debt, and slow growth in south africa. South africa, inflation rose above the upper limit of the central bank target range for 2014, prompting a tightening of monetary policy. South africa gdp growth rate south africa is the most developed country in africa and was the largest until 2014, when it was overtaken by nigeria. It is fundamentally a forwardlooking document which focuses on the outlook for the south african economy, in contrast to the which records and explains recent economic developments. In short, the share of mining in national output has more than. South african firms can benefit from deeper integration, given their better. Apr 06, 2014 nigerias economy surpassed south africas as the largest on the continent after the west african nation overhauled its gross domestic product data for the first time in two decades. African economic outlook 2014 tanzania human development. Recent developments in the global and south african economies.
Revenue growth has been constrained in recent years by government price regulations, slowing economic growth and and the. The outlook for 2017 is for a moderate economic recovery with real gdp projected to grow at 2. The outlook for the south african economy over the medium term is not very inspiring, despite some improvement from 2017 onwards. The southern africa economy is projected to grow slower than others in the continent at 2. Regional economic outlook international monetary fund. Dec 10, 2019 the outlook for the south african economy over the medium term is not very inspiring, despite some improvement from 2017 onwards. The outlook for some of south africa s key trading partners is becoming somewhat brighter, as evidenced by higher gdp growth and uptrending pmis thus far in 2017.
South africas economy in 5 charts world economic forum. South african economic growth is expected to recover somewhat to 2. South africa further interest rate cut on the horizon as coronavirus pummels sa economy apr 15 2020 20. Moodys currently has south africa on a negative outlook, which implies that within around eighteen months the country could be downgraded. A rise in confidence in early 2018 and the recent upward revision of national accounts for the period 2015 to 2017 suggest that the country is recovering from a difficult 2015 and 2016, which marked the end of the supercommodity cycle and. Imf world economic outlook database, latest release october 2015 many african currencies have also weakened against a strong us dollar, which has inflated the costs of imports and raw materials. African economic outlook 2014 global value chains and africa s industrialisation african development bank development centre of the organisation. Regional integration for africa s economic prosperity. South africa gdp growth rate 19932019 data 20202022. Working from home may be the new normal after lockdown.
This calls for substantial financial resources at a time when the global development finance landscape is changing. The african economic outlook aeo celebrates its 15th edition this year. South africa s inflation has been quite stable for the past years, levelling off between 4. It explores how foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, remittances and official development assistance have evolved in 2015 and 2016, and their outlook for 2017. The ssa region is a leading market for south african exports, particularly manufactured goods, and provides. This dossier presents a comprehensive outlook on the economic status quo in south africa. Four facts about our provincial economies statistics. South africa is resilient enough to overcome the impact of coronavirus pandemic as long as its policies are recalibrated toward economic growth once the crisis has passed, according to the international monetary fund. The government has initiated a plan for an integrated framework for development programs in the north east through implementation of targeted social.
Annual economic reports south african reserve bank. The annual african economic outlook aeo monitors the continents state of affairs. Stronger consumer spending, business investment and external demand helped gdp grow 3. Economic overview in brief the south african economy, which grew by an estimated 0. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the imf staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the imf, its executive board, or imf management. Private consumption will also expand as wages increase moderately. The big five economies of algeria, egypt, morocco, nigeria, and south africa jointly.
For the first time in a decade, investment accounted for more than half the continents growth, with private consumption accounting for less than. The 2019s mtbps projected gross debt to reach 71% of gdp by 202223 from closer to 60% in the 2019 mtbps, and. It ranked the country first for strength of auditing and reporting standards as well as financing through local equity market. The recovery in advanced economies will translate into moderately higher demand for south african exports. The outlook is positive, with growth projected at 6. Gdp growth has been declining 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 20162015105 0 5 10 15 yoy % changes government consumption total investment exports demand is weak. It would lay the foundation for a competitive continental market to accelerate growth and allow africa to be more competitive in global trade and value chains. Private credit growth, average, 2011 versus average, 201416. South africa s reserve bank sarb does not intervene in currency markets in order to influence the level of the rand. This annual report examines africas performance in crucial areas. South africa is an uppermiddleincome economy one of only eight such countries in africa. Central to this is the restoring of confidence amongst investors.
The 2019s mtbps projected gross debt to reach 71% of gdp by 202223 from closer to 60% in the 2019 mtbps, and to 81% by 202728 from 59. Global oil prices fell from usd 110 in 2014 to usd 30 before recovering to about usd 50 per barrel in early 2017. South africa, the largest economy in africa, registered a 2. South african economic outlook 201415 opinion, news. Still, the majority of forecasters expect an uptick from the lacklustre 0.
The south african economy experienced declining economic growth during 2014 2016, culminating in a twoquarter recession during the last quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017. The largest sector of the economy is services which accounts for around 73 percent of gdp. As the extent of the economic devastation wreaked by the coronavirus pandemic begins to emerge, economists have warned that the effects will likely set the economy back by more than six years a worse impact than was seen in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis. Data on south africa across agriculture,development, economy,education,energy,environment,finance,government,health,innovation and technology,jobs,society find, compare and share oecd data by country. African political leaders last year was their collective willingness to move forward with africa s economic integration. At the heart of this slow growth are the major headwinds of high inflation, increasing government debt, and slow growth in south africa, which contributes about twothirds of the regions gdp.
Classification by world economic outlook groups and their shares in aggregate gdp, exports of goods and services, and population, 20 159 table b. South africas economy struggles as world bank downgrades. The african economic outlook 2014 analyses the continents growing role in the world economy and predicts twoyear macroeconomic. It offers short and medium term forecasts on the main socio economic factors such as jobs, while at the same time examining the challenges. The world bank recently reduced its forecast for south africa s real gdp growth by half a percentage point to only 0. Sarb slashes rates as coronavirus darkens economic outlook march 18, 2020 at its meeting ending 18 march, the monetary policy committee mpc of the south african reserve bank sarb unanimously decided to axe the repurchase rate by 100 basis points to 5. Industrial production doubled its pace of contraction in q4, as unprecedented rolling blackouts hampered mining and manufacturing activities. South africa fell five places in the world economic forums global competitiveness report 2018, to 67th out of 140 economies. South africa s economic policy has focused on controlling inflation while empowering a broader economic base. Thank you to the economist for inviting me to come and address you on the topic the performance of and outlook for the south african economy. The south african economy exited its technical recession in the third quarter of 2018 as growth recovered to 2. Developing africas workforce for the future growths fundamentals are also improving, with a gradual shift from private consumption toward investment and exports. The performance of and outlook for the south african economy introduction ladies and gentlemen, good morning.
Developing africa s workforce for the future africa s economic growth has stabilized at 3. The global outlook presents both opportunities and risks for south africa. This 11th edition of the african economic outlook aeo is marked by a twin track. Download historical data for 20 million indicators using your browser. South african parliament elected him as president of the republic of south africa in february 2018.
Inequality manifests itself through a skewed income distribution, unequal access to opportunities, and regional disparities. Household spending is seen picking up and lower interest rates will likely boost fixed investment. Growth rate 6 percent annually south africa in 20142018. Globally, economic growth and trading activity are forecast to improve gradually over the shortto mediumterm. This years outlook offers new and timely analytics to show how african economies are integrat ing, how regional public goods are moving integration beyond the purely economic domain, and how the continental free trade agreement can generate substantial gains for all african countries. Real growth in gross domestic product gdp averaged just 1% yearonyear yoy during the. Policy on the reproduction of images of south african currency. Real economic growth is only projected to breach the 3% level by 2020, averaging 2. South sudan is the most oildependent country in the world, with oil accounting for almost the totality of exports, around 60% of its gross domestic product gdp, and over 95% of government revenues in previous fiscal years. President ramaphosa campaigned for the party presidency in 2017 with an economic recovery plan that he referred to as a new deal for south africa. Firstly the share of mining in gdp stood at 11% in 1994, but has steadily declined over an eighteen year period to its current 5% in 2012. Since the previous economic update of september 2017, a number of important events have improved south africas economic. According to african economic outlook, the african economy is expected to grow at 5. Growth in subsaharan africa is projected to remain at 3.
Real gdp over the period january to september 2018 was, however, only 0. Sub saharan africa is published twice a year, in the. Growth prospects will be driven by moderately stronger global growth, more favorable weather conditions, reliable electricity supply, less volatile labor relations, recovering business and consumer confidence. The performance of and outlook for the south african economy. The african economic outlook is available in various editions and formats. This years edition will for the first time cover eritrea and south sudan. May 06, 2014 although the ruling african national congress anc, which has been in power since the end of whiteminority rule in 1994, looks set to be reelected, there are many economic issues that the south. Data on south africa across agriculture,development,economy,education,energy,environment,finance,government,health,innovation and technology,jobs,society find, compare and share oecd data by country. South africa economy gdp, inflation, cpi and interest rate.
As a regional manufacturing hub, it is the most industrialized and diversified economy on the continent. Health expenditure per capita in african countries, 2014. Furthermore, fresh electricity generation problems in many countries, particularly south africa and ghana, means. South africa economic growth the economy is expected to expand at a slighly faster pace this year. Growth prospects will be driven by moderately stronger global growth, more favorable weather conditions, reliable electricity supply, less volatile labor relations, recovering business and consumer confidence, and stabilizing commodity prices. African economic outlook is a reference website which focuses on the economics of most african countries. For the aeos 15th anniversary, the partners have redesigned the website. African economic outlook 2014 algeria angola benin botswana. Growth in central, north and west africa was above 3%, while southern africa. Prospects in the retail and consumer goods sector in ten. Quarterly bulletin the mpr is presented by senior officials of the sarb at monetary policy forums in various centres across south africa in an.
South africa economic growth is projected to pick up slowly in 201920, driven by exports. Given population growth, gross domestic product gdp per capita growth has been close to nil since 2014, leaving little room to reduce poverty. Kwazulunatal was the second biggest, responsible for r16 of every r100 generated by the national economy. General features and composition of groups in the world economic outlook classification 157 table a. Organisation for economic cooperation and development oecd. Jeanphilippe stijns and nii moi thompson south africa, joseph. South africa has prudent monetary policy and sas central reserve bank policies are to remain independent, as per both government and the ruling party policies. Growth is projected to remain strong in nonresourceintensive countries, averaging about 6 percent. The global economic growth outlook has improved, but is clouded by policy uncertainty as. Reduced real disposable income, due to inflation, and higher borrowing costs weighed on investor sentiment and kept household consumption subdued, slowing economic activity. The economy of south africa is the second largest in africa, after nigeria.
Growth moderated in several mineral and metal exporters including mauritania, south africa, and zambia table 2. The annual african economic outlook report highlights economic prospects and projections for the continent as a whole and for each of the 54 countries. This chapter analyses recent trends in external financial flows to africa and domestic revenue collection. Indeed, the continents economic outlook for 20 and 2014 is. Although it holds the second spot in subsaharan africa, due to its welldeveloped financial system 18th place and market size 35th, it performs poorly on health 125th and comes only eight from the bottom for. It details the performance of african economies in crucial areas. African economic outlook go south, young man worlds ten fastestgrowing economies. Africas sustainable economic and social transformation is a global priority. The african economic outlook 2017 presents the continents current state of affairs and forecasts its situation for the coming two years. This page has economic forecasts for south africa including a longterm outlook for the next decades, plus mediumterm expectations for the next four quarters and shortterm market predictions for the next release affecting the south africa economy. The african economic outlook aeo is a highquality, independent tool for monitoring.
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